- Bitcoin has created a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. A wedge breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a drop to levels below $10,000.
- Bitcoin’s recent recovery from $9,467 lacked high-volume support, so a rising wedge breakdown looks likely. The weekly chart is also flashing bearish signals.
- A high-volume move above $11,000 would invalidate the bearish case and allow a rise to $11,500. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed for a full bullish revival.
Bitcoin is losing altitude after rejection near the psychological hurdle of $11,000 earlier today, and may fall below $10,000 in the next 24 hours.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose to a high of $10,956 at 00:03 UTC today on Bitstamp, extending its recovery from the Aug. 15 low of $9,467.
The rise to $11,000 was expected, as the cryptocurrency’s hourly chart was reporting a high-volume ascending channel breakout or a bullish continuation pattern yesterday.
The momentum, however, soon petered out just short of $11,000 and prices fell back below $10,800 by 03:30 UTC. Another wave of selling hit the markets in the European morning session, pushing BTC lower to $10,550 in the 75 minutes to 09:00 UTC.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,690 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.25 percent loss on a 24-hour basis. Prices are still up more than $1,000 from the low of $9,467 seen on Aug. 15.
Investors have associated the recent recovery with Friday’s announcement by the Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23, with some believing the news marks a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.
In the short-term, however, there is a strong probability that BTC will fall back below $10,000, as the recovery from recent lows has taken the shape of a bearish reversal pattern.
BTC has created a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, comprising converging trendlines connecting higher highs and higher lows.
The converging nature of the trendlines represents weakening bullish momentum. Hence, a breakdown is said to confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change.
As of writing, the lower edge of the rising wedge is seen at $10,494. A 4-hour close below that level would confirm a rising wedge breakdown – that is, the bounce from $9,467 has topped out near $11,000 and the bears have regained control.
A wedge breakdown, if confirmed, would open the doors to $9,974 (horizontal support line). A violation there would expose the Aug. 15 low of $9,467.
The odds of BTC confirming a wedge breakdown in the next few hours is high, as the relative strength index has dived out an ascending trendline in favor of the bears. Further, trading volumes dropped during the recovery from $9,467, which usually happens during temporary corrective rallies.
The 5-week moving average (MA) has crossed below the 10-week MA, confirming the first bearish crossover since February.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram continues to produce lower highs and is currently reporting the weakest bullish momentum in six months. The 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has also produced a bearish lower high.
BTC fell 10.49 percent last week, strengthening the case for a deeper pullback put forward by the rejection above $12,000 two weeks ago.
All-in-all, BTC risks falling below $10,000 in the next 24 hours or so. The bearish case would be invalidated if prices print a 4-hour close above $11,000 on the back of high volumes.
That would signal a continuation of the recovery from the Aug. 15 low of $9,467 and allow a rise to $11,589 (resistance on the 4-hour chart).
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View