- Bitcoin’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is charting higher lows, indicating seller exhaustion. Other indicators are also reporting oversold conditions.
- A falling channel on the hourly chart may end with a bullish breakout and fuel a rally to $8,800. On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at $8,500 (200-day average).
- The case for a stronger corrective bounce would weaken if prices find acceptance below $8,000.
Bitcoin’s stalled recovery rally may soon gather pace, as a key indicator is reporting seller exhaustion.
The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $8,130 on Bitstamp, having faced rejection at highs above $8,500 on Oct. 1.
With the $400 pullback, the corrective bounce from Sept. 30’s lows near $7,700 looks to have ended. Bitcoin’s MACD histogram, however, is telling otherwise.
A technical tool used to identify trend strength and trend changes, the MACD has recovered sharply from the Sept. 26 low of -236 to -56 suggesting weakening bearish momentum.
Daily MACD chart
The MACD has produced shallower bars below the zero line over the last few days. The higher lows indicate seller exhaustion, as noted above, and indicate scope for a stronger corrective bounce.
Daily and hourly charts
The long tails attached to the previous two candles (above left) indicate selling pressure weakened weakened on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing prices to recover lost ground before their UTC closes. Put simply, buyers are beginning to test sellers’ resolve in keeping prices low.
Additionally, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) continues to report oversold conditions with a below-30 print.
All-in-all, the falling channel seen on the hourly chart (above right) appears likely to end with a bullish breakout. That would imply a continuation of the rally from lows near $7,700 and could fuel a rally to $8,833 (June 2 high).
On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at the 200-day moving average (MA), currently at $8,503. The average proved a tough nut to crack on Oct. 1.
The bullish case would weaken if prices find acceptance below $8,000 in the next 24 hours, although that looks unlikely. Also, any rally to $8,800 or higher could be short-lived, as longer duration charts are still biased bearish.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via CoinDesk Archives; charts by Trading View