Almost in the middle of the week of Bitcoin trading, buyers completed their growth attempt, which began from 15 August. In the previous analysis, we pointed to the black wedge, in which the price started to trade just at the moment of local growth. And also, we expressed our opinion about the weakness of growth. The fact is that when comparing the dynamics of the fall from 10 August, past growth more resembled a correction due to the absence of danger during updating local highs and deep corrections.
After testing the last local target at $11,000 which we expected, sellers were able to easily break through the lower wedge trend line and price range of $10,500-10,600. This price zone in the case of buyers was a problem for 3 days, while sellers coped with it for an hour:
In the breakdown, we see increased volumes and a confident red candle with a large body, which tells us about the true breakdown. It is a signal of a fall continuation after the correction. So our main scenario with a target of $9,450 and a final target of $7,500-7,600 remains relevant. On the daily chart, we are approaching the price zone from where the seller problems with pins occurred during the previous attack:
Considering
the pace that Bitcoin sellers have taken, the price should not stay in this range
for long.
The situation regarding the marginal positions of buyers remains unchanged:
This
consolidation alarms us and does not make it clear whether in the future we can
trust a chart which does not show any reaction to price movements.
Sellers are not reducing their marginal positions for the second day by pausing the fall:
According to the index of fear and greed, we see in the market a sharp change of emotions, but the emotion of fear is dominating.
According to the wave analysis, local buyer growth consisted of 3 waves. Wave (c) is practically equal to wave (a):
Local growth has ended, correcting the previous fall by 50%. In our opinion, Bitcoin sellers have the prospect to organize a new fall wave, roughly the same as the fall wave from 10 August. Let’s see if sellers still have a force to continue falling and go through the range of false breakdowns by tomorrow. Tune in to the red continuation of the week. See you in the next Bitcoin analysis!
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