It’s time to sum up the monthly Ethereum trading. The situation here is a bit different from that of the case of Bitcoin.
The month candle closed 22% lower than it opened earlier this month. The month began with the continuation of buyer weak growth, which clearly resembled a correction, and already on 6 August sellers began their game. The high of August was a price mark $240 and a local low of $164.12.
In terms of volumes, the situation is no different from that of Bitcoin. The monthly timeframe clearly shows a systematic decrease in volumes since April:
However, it does not affect the size of the candles at all. With these facts in mind, we continue to adhere to our main scenario, namely trading in the black wedge until about mid-September with a final target $155:
During the two days of the new month, the situation has not changed much. The price moves between two price marks ($168- $174) and sometimes there are false breakdowns.
Considering that sellers have stopped updating local lows, and buyers, on the contrary, are seeking and achieving local highs, we believe that this consolidation is buyers foothold for the test of $185 (the upper wedge trend line). Only with such a depth correction of the previous wave from 20 August, will buyers be able to stop sellers at a price mark of $155. If sellers break the current consolidation, then the chance of breaking $155 and of the $135 test will increase tremendously.
With regard to buyers’ marginal positions, they increased throughout the month. Although Ethereum growth period ended on 6 August:
Buyers worthily endured all the fall in consolidation, not panicking or closing their positions. However, breaking through $155 will make even the most ardent Ethereum buyer decrease positions.
In August, we did not see a particular change in the dynamics of sellers marginal positions movement:
There is a slight increase in positions, however, given that sellers marginal positions have been at historical lows in consolidation since April, this growth is insignificant.
There is nothing new to say globally in the wave analysis:
Sellers are trying to fix below the price mark $175 (38.2% Fibonacci level). If they do, then our alternative scenario of falling to $135 will be the main one.
Globally, we expect a strong price movement in the second half of September, depending on how Ethereum buyers will cope with the price $155. So follow our daily analysis and keep your eye on the pulse of ETH.
Image Courtesy: TradingView
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